DA from January 2020 for Central Government Employees – 4% increase estimated

Month wise All India Consumer Price Index recorded from January 2019 to October 2019, is as follows.

Month	Actual AICPI-IW
Jan-2019	307
Feb-2019	307
Mar-2019	309
Apr-2019	312
May-2019	314
Jun-2019	316
Jul-2019	319
Aug-2019	320
Sep-2019	322
Oct-2019	325
Nov-2019	Not released
Dec-2019	Not released

The above data (Actual index from January 2019 to October 2019) and assumed index for remaining two months at higher, equal and lower levels than the present consumer price index suggest following Four possibilities.

1. 3% increase in DA from January 2020, even if the assumed index for remaining two months reduced by 10 points in each month (total decrease of 20 points)

2. 4% increase in DA from January 2020, if the index stays at the present level (325) till Decembe 2019 i.e., No increase or decrease in the Index in the remaining two months.

3. 4% increase in DA from January 2020, if the index decreases by not more than 1 point in any of the remaining two months and not more than 2 points in the other month.

4. 5% increase in DA from January 2020, only if All India Consumer Price Index as on December 2019 increased to 340 at least from the present level of 325, with an intermediate increase of 12 points during November 2019.

However, 3% increase in DA from January 2020, is almost confirmed as the index will have to decrease by 10 points in November 2019 and also in December to get less than 3% increase in DA.